A record one billion smartphones will be shipped in 2013, mobile advertising will get split into two categories — tablets and smartphones — and more than 90% of user-generated passwords will be vulnerable to hacking in a matter of seconds. This is according to the 12th edition of the global Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited’s (DTTL) Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) Predictions 2013 report, released on Tuesday, 15 January 2013. The TMT Predictions 2013 report also forecasts that broadcasters will continue to deliver the majority of over-the-top (OTT) services, and 4K televisions won’t disrupt the marketplace just yet.
“This year’s predictions cover a range of topics, from the continued dominance of personal computers (PCs) despite inferior sales relative to smart devices, the developments around long-term evolution (LTE), and data access, to smartphones and the vulnerability of passwords,” said Mark Casey, Deloitte Leader: Technology, Media and Telecommunications Industry. “With the splitting of ‘mobile’ advertising into separate mobile and tablet categories, advertisers should begin to consider new forms of advertising specific to smartphones, such as interactive videos or game functionality; tablets, meanwhile, may borrow content created for PCs as well as usage formerly undertaken on PCs.”
Additionally, in 2013, the smartphone sector may generate $4.9 billion in revenues, while advertising on tablets may generate $3.4 billion.
There will also be an upsurge in momentum behind LTE, with 2013 being the first year in which LTE thrives across multiple markets. The subscriber base will triple to 200 million by year-end, and those on LTE tariffs will represent about 10% of all service revenues. Usage of LTE will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary: the major benefits of subscribing to LTE from 3G are likely to be better performance from existing applications, from e-mail to updating social networks.
Additional highlights of this year’s TMT predictions to impact the global marketplace in 2013 include:
* “Mobile advertising” thrives, led by tablets, but smartphone display lags — “Mobile” advertising — a category including tablets, smartphones and feature phones — should grow by 50% to reach $9 billion globally.
* A billion smartphones should ship for the first time ever — Usage, however, will become increasingly varied, with a growing number of smartphone owners (about 400 million out of an installed base of 1.9 billion by year-end) rarely or never connecting their devices to data.
* The PC is not dead: It’s about usage, not units — Of total sales of PCs, tablets and smartphones in 2013, PCs will be about one fifth. However, more than 80% of Internet traffic measured in bits will continue to be generated on traditional personal computers (desktops and laptops). And of the total time spent at home and at work on PCs, tablets and smartphones combined, more than 70% will be on a PC.
* 4K kicks off — 2013 will be the year in which the television industry starts preparing in earnest for the next iteration of high-definition (HD), known as 4K, which offers four times the resolution of the current highest standard HD TV. The full rollout of 4K will take years: in 2013, 4K will be in very few living rooms. There will be no 4K broadcasts in 2013, and there is little content so far.
* Let’s get together: Crowdfunding portals bring in the bucks — Crowdfunding portals will raise $3 billion globally, a 100% increase over 2011.
* Enterprise Social Networks (ESN): Another tool, but not yet a panacea — More than 90% of Fortune 500 companies will have selectively or fully implemented an ESN by the end of 2013, a 70% increase over 2011. Of those who register, only a third will read content once a week or more, and just 40% will make an ESN post in the average month.
* Bring your own computer: A tale of two interpretations — Very few additional companies will adopt a bring your own computer (BYOC) policy where the employer pays for the PC. At the same time, 50% of Fortune 500 companies will allow employees to bring their own personally-owned and paid for computers.
* The looming spectrum shortage: Worse before it gets better — The demand for wireless bandwidth continues to grow causing increased spectrum exhaustion — leading mainly to slower speeds, but sometimes an inability to access networks or dropped calls or data sessions.
* All you can app: middle ground — Between 50 and 100 mobile operators will offer all-you-can-eat services with unlimited access to specific applications — a middle ground between unrestricted all-you-can-eat tariffs and metered data charging.
Full details about the global TMT Predictions are available here: http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_ZA/za/industries/technologymediaandtelecommunications/tmt-predictions-2013/index.htm.
DTTL TMT Predictions
The TMT Predictions are based on worldwide research supported by in-depth interviews and input from Deloitte member firm clients, Deloitte alumni, industry analysts, leading TMT executives, and thousands of Deloitte member firm TMT practitioners across its global network.
Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.com/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu and its member firms.
Deloitte provides audit, tax, consulting and financial advisory services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. With a globally connected network of member firms in more than 150 countries, Deloitte brings world-class capabilities and deep local expertise to help clients succeed wherever they operate. Deloitte's approximately 170 000 professionals are committed to becoming the standard of excellence.
© 2012 Deloitte & Touche. All rights reserved. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.